The English Premier League has a fascinating statistic – only 23% of football games end in a draw. This means the lay the draw strategy lets you bet against something that doesn’t happen more than 75% of the time!
Many beginners love this sports trading strategy, and it can bring amazing profits. My personal experience proves this – I managed to double my trading bank two seasons in a row during my early trading days by using this approach with my own rules. The strategy’s concept is simple: we bet AGAINST the draw because the draw’s price goes up once a goal is scored.
This Betfair lay the draw strategy becomes even more attractive since 92% of football matches see at least one goal. Success with any lay the draw betting strategy depends not just on understanding its mechanics, but on picking the right moments. Football stands as the world’s most traded sport, with daily trading volumes reaching millions of pounds. This creates abundant opportunities if you take the right approach.
Let me share some detailed lay the draw tips in this piece – the kind of professional traders usually keep secret. You’ll learn about optimal entry points, exit strategies and effective risk management.
What is Lay the Draw and How Does It Work?
Lay betting on the draw stands out as one of the simplest yet most useful football trading strategies you can find on betting exchanges. Unlike regular betting, where you back something to happen, lay betting lets you bet that something won’t happen.
Understanding lay betting on Betfair
The basic idea behind laying the draw is betting that a football match won’t end in a tie. You can only do this through betting exchanges like Betfair, Smarkets, and Matchbook. These platforms let users bet against each other instead of a bookmaker. You can play both roles – the punter and the bookmaker.
A lay bet on Betfair means you’re taking someone else’s bet at odds you pick. Your profit has a limit – it’s the stake of whoever takes your bet (the “backer”). Your liability – the amount you could lose – works out like this:
Liability = (Lay odds × Backer’s stake) – Backer’s stake
Let’s say you lay the draw at odds of 3.5 with a £10 stake. Your liability would be £25. That’s the most you could lose if the match ends in a draw. But if either team wins, you’ll get the £10 stake (minus what the exchange charges).
Most traders like to lay at lower odds to keep their liability down. A £10 lay at odds of 1.5 means you risk £5 to win £10. At odds of 3.5, you risk £25 for that same £10 profit.
Why lay the draw is popular among traders
Traders love lay the draw for several good reasons:
- Statistical advantage – About 75% of matches in the English Premier League don’t end in a draw. You’re betting on what happens more often.
- Two ways to win – You win if either team comes out on top. That gives you two chances to win against one way to lose.
- Price movement opportunity – Goals change everything in the lay the draw. When someone scores, draw odds jump by a lot. This jump creates a chance to trade.
- Beginner-friendly approach – This strategy helps new football traders learn the ropes. It’s a great way to understand how exchange trading works.
Here’s a real example: You lay the draw in a Chelsea vs Crystal Palace match. The score stays 0-0 until the 75th minute when Chelsea scores to make it 1-0. The draw odds would shoot up. You could then use Betfair’s cash-out feature or back the draw at higher odds to lock in profit, whatever happens next.
Traders also like how lay the draw fits with football’s natural flow. Since 92% of matches see at least one goal, you usually get a chance to trade out profitably before the final whistle.
This strategy works best in games with teams that score lots of goals or really need to win. Pro traders carefully pick their matches. They look for games where both teams like to attack rather than defend.
The beauty of this approach lies in its flexibility. You can start before kick-off, jump in during the match at key moments, or wait until after a goal. You can also change your exit plan based on how the game plays out.
How to Place and Exit a Lay the Draw Bet
The lay the draw concept becomes practical once you know how to place your bet and exit your trade at the right time. Let me show you the steps.
Placing a lay bet on the draw
Betting exchanges like Betfair make lay the draw bets simple. Here’s what you need to do:
- Select your chosen football match
- Locate the “Match Odds” market
- Click on the pink box displaying the draw odds (pink boxes represent lay bets)
- Enter your stake amount
- Confirm your bet
Note that your “stake” shows how much you’ll win if your lay bet works out (when the match doesn’t end in a draw). The exchange figures out your liability—the money you need in your account if things go wrong.
One vital point: check that there’s adequate liquidity in the market. Good liquidity means your bet gets accepted fast at fair odds and you retain control of your position. Markets with poor liquidity might trap you later when you want to exit.
Calculating liability and potential profit
Your bankroll management depends on understanding liability. This represents the money you could lose if teams draw.
The formula to calculate liability is: Liability = (Lay odds – 1) × Stake
Take this example: laying the draw at 3.4 odds with a £100 stake: Liability = (3.4 – 1) × £100 = £240
You’ll need £240 in your exchange account for this bet. A win by either team brings you £100 profit (minus commission). A draw costs you £240 in liability.
Higher lay odds mean bigger liability. Many traders prefer lower odds to cut their risk. Smaller stakes also reduce liability, which helps beginners, especially.
Using the cash-out feature or manual exit
Your exit strategy can make or break your profits. The right timing separates consistent winners from frustrated losers.
Cash-out feature: Betfair’s Cash Out lets you secure profits or cut losses before the final whistle. The platform shows you an offer based on live market prices—just hit the yellow button to exit. You can also use partial cash-out to lock some profit while keeping your position open.
Manual exit strategies include:
First goal exit: A favourite’s goal lets you “green up” or cash out fora 35-45% return on stake. This gives you quick, smaller profits and less market exposure.
Second goal exit: Waiting for the favourite to score twice usually brings 80%+ profit on stake. This gives better risk-reward but needs more patience.
Time-based exit: Traders often close goalless draws at 70-75 minutes or when draw odds hit 2.0 to limit losses. Stats show many late goals after 70 minutes, so this needs careful judgment.
Underdog scoring: An underdog goal gives you three choices: take a small loss now, lay the underdog (betting on an equaliser), or stay in if you trust the favourite to bounce back.
Pick what matches your risk comfort level. Trading success comes from positive risk-reward ratios across many trades. Strict exits, clear stop-losses, and steady strategy use build long-term success.
How to Choose the Right Match
The lifeblood of any successful lay the draw strategy is picking the right matches. Even seasoned traders know they can’t use this approach with every football game. Match selection might seem daunting at first, but you can substantially improve your success rate with the right criteria.
Avoiding low-scoring leagues
Football leagues show dramatic differences in their scoring patterns, which makes some unsuitable for the lay the draw strategy. About 8% of all football matches worldwide end 0-0, but leagues vary quite a bit. To name just one example, the English Premier League had only 3.4% of matches finish 0-0 in 2023, while 10.8% of Spanish Segunda fixtures ended without goals.
Leagues with very high or low scoring tendencies need careful consideration. Leagues with high scoring (2.93-3.93 goals per match) aren’t always the best choice. The sweet spot lies in competitions that average between 2.00-2.66 goals per match.
Most traders stay away from:
- Brazilian leagues (goals are hard to come by)
- Portuguese leagues
- Swedish Allsvenskan (37% draw rate in recent seasons)
- Swedish Superettan (33% draw rate with only 2.67 goals per match)
Looking for teams with high goal averages
Teams that score regularly are vital to success. The Premier League’s 2023-24 season has matches averaging three goals per game – a 55-year high. The Championship also shows its highest scoring average since 1966-67.
The best matches to analyse include:
- Teams that score lots at home (like Brighton’s 2.63 goals per game)
- Games where both sides prefer attacking to defending
- Matches where teams need wins (maybe to avoid relegation)
Stay away from games where one team might “park the bus” for 90 minutes. New traders often pick games with obvious favourites against underdogs, but these can lead to defensive stalemates.
Checking head-to-head and recent form
Previous meetings between teams offer valuable clues. Head-to-head statistics consistently help predict goal patterns. Take West Brom vs. Burnley – their last seven matches all went over 2.5 goals.
Look at these factors in recent form:
- Clean sheet statistics
- Expected Goals (xG) performance
- When teams score their goals (Manchester United scores 26.15% of goals between 76-90+ minutes)
- Important players who might miss the game, especially top scorers
Importance of liquidity in the market
Market liquidity – the money available for betting – is vital for successful trading. High liquidity will give a better chance of matching bets quickly and finding exit points during the match.
Betfair shows liquidity with the ‘£’ figure under the odds. Your lay stake needs to match or be less than the available liquidity for a full match. Partial matches can leave you exposed to unwanted risk.
High-profile sporting events attract more back bettors without doubt, which creates deeper markets with better liquidity. Premier leagues and major competitions work better for laying the draw strategies than lesser-known matches.
Best Times to Enter and Exit the Trade
Success in lay the draw trading depends on perfect timing. The right moment to enter and exit trades can boost your profits and cut down your risks. Let’s look at the best times to use your lay the draw strategy and get the most from your trades.
Laying the draw before kickoff
The basic “vanilla” method requires you to place your lay bet before the game starts. This way gives you coverage for the whole game and better chances of seeing a goal. Most traders watch for goals and exit right after the first one to spread their profits across outcomes.
The main drawback of betting before the match is the bigger liability – laying at odds around 4.80 puts you at risk far more than if you wait. A £100 lay at 4.80 means you’re risking £380, but waiting for the right moment could cut this risk in half.
Second-half LTD strategy
Smart traders now lean towards second-half entries because they work better. Your liability drops by a lot as draw odds naturally fall as the game goes on. You might lay at 2.90 in the second half instead of 4.80 pre-match, which brings your liability down from £380 to £190.
The profit margins are better too. A trade that makes £36.54 profit from pre-match could bring in £59.68 if you enter in the second half.
Make sure at least one team wants to win before you place a second-half lay. Teams playing at home usually push hard until the end, but away teams might be happy with a draw.
Late-game LTD entry
The later you jump in, the better your risk-reward ratio gets. Many traders look for goalless matches around 70-75 minutes when draw odds are near 2.0.
This works great when the stronger team controls the game and creates chances. You can also wait for specific moments, like when teams make attacking substitutions or get dangerous free kicks or corners.
The Premier League stats show that 26.9% of matches had no goals in the first half during 2023, so taking your time often works out better.
Exit after the first goal vs. waiting for the second
Your exit plan shapes your risk-reward setup:
- First goal exit: New traders should get out right after the first goal, which locks in 35-45% profit on stake. This keeps things simple and cuts down market exposure.
- Second goal exit: Waiting for the favourite to score twice usually brings in 80%+ profit on stake. The risk-reward ratio looks better, but you need strong discipline to avoid getting greedy.
Experience makes a big difference here. New traders need to pick one exit plan and stick with it. Experienced traders often make calls based on how the match flows, team stats, and what happens during play.
Take Manchester City playing Norwich as an example. If City scores first, letting the trade run could bring in much more profit as more goals look likely. But in tight games like Chelsea vs. Manchester United, it’s smarter to take your profit right after the first goal.
Set a clear plan for games with no goals. Most traders close their positions between 70-75 minutes or when draw odds hit 2.0 to keep losses small. Some traders might wait longer to catch late goals, but this takes real nerve since you could lose everything.
Handling Unexpected Scenarios
Smart traders can face tough scenarios that test their skills, even with careful “lay the draw” strategies. A cool head during unexpected developments sets profitable traders apart from those who struggle.
What to do if the underdog scores first
Underdog scoring first creates a major headache for many lay the draw traders. The market’s reaction can be counterintuitive. The draw odds might decrease instead of increasing after an underdog goal. This happens because the market expects the favourite to equalise, which makes a draw more likely.
These circumstances leave you with three main options:
- Immediate exit: A quick exit after the underdog scores limits your loss to about 50% of your stake. Beginners benefit from this approach as it stops emotional decisions.
- Hold position: You might keep your position if you think the favourite will score twice. This needs a good read of in-play stats and match flow.
- Metaltone strategy: Some traders use this method by backing the draw with 50% of their liability and laying the underdog with 75% of their liability. This strategy counts on the favourite scoring an equaliser but risks more if the underdog scores again.
How to react to a 0-0 scoreline at 70 minutes
The “dreaded” 0-0 scenario creates mental pressure, especially since most football goals happen after the 70-minute mark. Many traders pick a set exit point—usually between 65-75 minutes when draw odds hit about 2.0.
Your risk tolerance drives this decision. An exit at this stage usually means losing around 50% of your stake. Seasoned traders adapt their strategy based on match stats, momentum, and team patterns.
When to cut losses and move on
Successful traders stand out by their disciplined exits. Clear rules set before the trade help keep emotions in check. Professional traders often use odds movements to set mental “stop loss” points.
Never chase losses through “revenge trading”. You might need to close your browser tab to avoid rushed decisions. Note that 0-0 scores happen in about 8% of matches, so you can’t avoid occasional losses.
Knowing how to handle these scenarios calmly affects your long-term profits. Create clear guidelines for unexpected situations, follow your rules, and keep your risk to 1-2% of your total trading bank per trade.
Advanced Lay the Draw Strategies
Simple yet advanced techniques can boost your profits and protect against common pitfalls in lay the draw betting.
Lay the draw with 0-0 insurance
Smart traders hedge their lay the draw position by backing the 0-0 scoreline simultaneously. This insurance technique works best in leagues that see fewer goals, like France’s Ligue 2 or the Nigerian league. The protection is simple – you place a back bet on 0-0 to guard against the outcome that lay the draw traders fear most.
To cite an instance, laying the draw at 2.88 odds with a £100 stake (£188 liability) and placing a £30 back bet on 0-0 at 6.0 odds would result in: a £70 win if either team wins, a £38 loss if the game ends 0-0, and a £218 loss if any other draw occurs. This strategy reduces your maximum losses but also cuts into potential profits.
Lay the draw and back 1-1
The 1-1 scoreline offers another insurance approach, backed by stats showing it happens in 11% of matches compared to 0-0’s 8%. The math suggests a back bet of one-third your lay stake—a £34 bet on 1-1 at 8.4 odds pairs with laying £100 on the draw at 3.5.
The outcomes would be:
- Home/Away win: £66 profit
- 1-1 draw: £1.60 profit
- Any other draw: £284 loss
This strategy makes sense in leagues with rare occurrences of 0-0, 2-2, or 3-3 results.
Using software to predict draw odds
Trading software like Bet Angel gives you powerful tools to visualise odds movements. These programs show predicted draw odds after a goal, whichever team scores. The software’s rules files trigger and store draw prices from the +1 handicap markets, showing you what future market conditions might look like.
Traders can make smarter decisions about position entry and exit times. This helps new traders who might not accurately estimate odds movements.
Recording and analysing your trades
Detailed trade records are vital to succeed long term. Your betting activity tracking will reveal performance patterns—you might find consistent losses in specific leagues or match types. These insights help adjust your strategy to focus on scenarios where you have proven success.
Conclusion On The Lay the Draw Strategy
Becoming skilled at the lay the draw strategy demands time, knowledge, and disciplined execution. This piece explores how this approach works by leveraging the statistical edge that roughly 75% of matches don’t end in draws. The potential to make good profits exists because draw odds respond dynamically when goals are scored.
Your results ended up depending on a few vital factors. Smart match selection makes all the difference – you need to pick games where teams actually score goals instead of just backing favourites. The right entry timing reduces your risk while boosting profit potential. Most professional traders prefer second-half entries for this exact reason.
Discipline is the most important element to succeed in lay the draw trading. New traders often fail because they don’t have clear exit rules or chase losses after bad results. Clear guidelines for different scenarios help you maintain emotional control when matches don’t go your way.
Advanced techniques we discussed are a great way to get protection against specific risks – especially when you have the dreaded 0-0 outcome. These methods need extra calculations and experience to work properly.
Football trading gives real profit opportunities if you’re ready to learn proper strategy. This approach helped me double my bank over back-to-back seasons by using consistent rules and picking matches carefully during my early trading days.
Note that no strategy wins every trade. You’ll face both winning and losing positions without doubt. The difference between traders who profit and those who don’t isn’t about avoiding losses – it’s about managing risk effectively across multiple trades.
Begin with small stakes while learning the ropes. Track your results carefully and fine-tune your approach based on real performance data. You’ll develop variations that match your risk tolerance and trading style over time.
The lay the draw strategy still works despite its popularity because most traders use it poorly. Following the guidelines in this piece gives you an edge over casual traders who lack discipline and proper match selection criteria.
Lay the Draw Strategy Key Takeaways
Master the lay the draw strategy to capitalise on the fact that 75% of football matches don’t end in draws, giving you two ways to win with statistical advantage.
• Choose matches with high-scoring teams and avoid low-scoring leagues – target games averaging 2.00-2.66 goals per match for optimal results • Enter trades in the second half rather than pre-match to reduce liability by up to 50% while improving profit margins significantly • Exit immediately after the first goal for 35-45% returns, or wait for the second goal for 80%+ profits if you can handle increased risk • Set clear stop-loss rules at 70-75 minutes when draw odds reach 2.0 to limit losses in goalless matches • Record and analyze every trade to identify profitable patterns and avoid leagues or scenarios where you consistently lose money
The key to long-term success isn’t winning every trade, but maintaining disciplined execution with proper risk management across multiple positions. Start small, stick to your predetermined rules, and focus on match selection over trying to predict individual game outcomes.
Lay the Draw Strategy FAQs
Q1. Is the lay the draw strategy profitable for football betting? The lay the draw strategy can be profitable when executed correctly. It capitalises on the fact that about 75% of football matches don’t end in draws, giving you two ways to win. However, success depends on careful match selection, strategic timing, and disciplined risk management.
Q2. What’s the best time to enter a lay the draw trade? Many experienced traders prefer entering lay the draw trades in the second half of a match. This approach reduces liability by up to 50% compared to pre-match entry while also improving profit margins. It allows you to assess the match dynamics before committing to a position.
Q3. How should I exit a lay the draw trade? There are two main exit strategies: 1) Exit immediately after the first goal for 35-45% returns on your stake, which is simpler and reduces market exposure. 2) Wait for the second goal, potentially yielding 80%+ profits but with increased risk. Your choice should align with your risk tolerance and experience level.
Q4. What should I do if a match is still 0-0 at 70 minutes? Most traders set a predetermined exit point around 70-75 minutes when draw odds reach approximately 2.0. This typically results in a 50% loss of your stake. However, experienced traders might adjust based on match statistics and team behaviours, as many goals occur after the 70-minute mark.
Q5. How can I improve my lay the draw strategy over time? Keep detailed records of all your trades, analysing your performance to identify patterns. This will help you focus on scenarios where you have a proven edge and avoid leagues or match types where you consistently lose money. Start with small stakes, stick to predetermined rules, and gradually refine your approach based on actual results.