The 2024/25 English football league season was a thriller from beginning to end. In the Championship, Leeds United, Burnley, and Sheffield United went head-to-head in a three-way scrap for the crown. Eventually, it was the Whites who came out on top with Wilfried Gnonto’s injury-time winner on the final day of the season away at Plymouth Argyle, enough to snatch the title from the Clarets, who themselves were promoted as runners-up.
That has consigned the Blades to the lottery of the playoffs, a hunting ground which hasn’t been kind to them over the years. Their last three postseason trips have all ended at the semifinal stage, while the four playoff finals they reached before that all ended in defeat.
This year, though, online live betting sites think their luck could be set to change. With the playoffs now underway, Bovada’s live betting odds currently have the South Yorkshire side listed as the +175 frontrunner to secure promotion to the Premier League. Frank Lampard’s Coventry City are narrowly behind at +250, with Sunderland at +275, and finally Bristol City as the +400 outsiders. But across all three tiers of the EFL, there are plenty of pointers that can help you when betting on the madness of the playoffs. Here are three of them.
It’s Not Over Till It’s Over
When it comes to the playoffs, no lead is safe. The end-of-season showdown has an unmatched ability to deliver heart-stopping comebacks that defy belief. If there’s one lesson to take from the last few years, it’s this: brace yourself for the unexpected.
Take Sheffield Wednesday’s jaw-dropping turnaround in 2023, for example. They trailed Peterborough United by four goals to nil after the first leg of their semifinal at London Road. The Owls looked dead and buried. But football, with all its twists and turns, had other ideas.
32,000 fans packed into Hillsborough hoping to see a miracle, and ultimately, that would somehow come to fruition. Three goals up heading into injury time, Liam Palmer’s last-gasp strike eight minutes into injury time would force an additional half an hour. There, Peterbrough would strike and pull one back, but the Owls would bag for the fifth time on the night through Callum Paterson, sending the contest to penalties. Wednesday ultimately held their nerve, winning 5-3 in the shootout and completing the greatest comeback the playoffs had ever seen.
A year later, Crewe Alexandra reminded us once again that comebacks are part of playoff DNA. Facing Doncaster Rovers away last season, the Railwaymen entered the second leg down 2-0 after a lackluster home performance. Against the odds, they forced their way back into contention, overturning the deficit and crushing The Rovers’ dreams, once again ultimately winning in a penalty shootout.
Tip:
When betting on playoff semifinals, consider teams that have had strong home form during the season, especially in the second leg. The emotional boost of playing in front of a home crowd can inspire monumental recoveries. For those who love live betting, don’t shy away from backing teams trailing by seemingly insurmountable margins.
Tense Finals
The spectacle of the finals may come with dizzying stakes, but if you’re betting on goals, recent years suggest dialing down your expectations. Finals across all three tiers of the EFL have tended to be tense, cagey affairs. Over the past four years, only two finals have cleared 2.5 goals. Those contests came years ago, namely Blackpool’s 2-1 triumph against Lincoln City in the 2021 League One showpiece and Port Vale’s 3-0 win against Mansfield a year later. Outside of these games, though, the finals have been low-scoring contests.
The Championship finals have followed a similar script. Two of the last three have ended with a 1-0 victory. Southampton beat Leeds by that scoreline last term, winning against the odds thanks to striker Adam Armstrong’s first-half goal. In 2022, Nottingham Forest downed Huddersfield Town by a solitary goal, and they didn’t even score it, with the winner coming in the form of an own goal from Terriers loanee Levi Colwill.
In 2019 and 2020, back-to-back finals finished 2-1, meaning that bets on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score cashed. However, you have to go all the way back to 2012 for a final where the same selections would have resulted in winners.
Tip:
For finals, betting on under 2.5 goals has proven to be a wise strategy, given the recent trends of tight, low-scoring matches. If you’re feeling bold, the correct score market could reward you for taking a stab at 1-0 for either side, a result that has become something of a Championship playoff final specialty.
Expect Penalties
There’s nothing quite like the nerve-wracking drama of a penalty shootout, and the playoffs seem to make it a yearly tradition. Over the last three years, at least one semifinal in all three leagues has headed to penalties. The finals have followed suit, with two of the three 2023 showdowns – specifically in the Championship and League Two – decided from the spot. Had it not been for Sheffield Wednesday’s last-gasp winner against Barnsley in the dying embers of extra time in the third-tier showpiece, then all three finals would have been decided from the spot.
Tip:
You may want to consider betting on matches going to penalties, especially in tightly contested finals or semifinals. For extra doses of daring, the “To Win on Penalties” market can offer higher returns.